The dollar advanced against the real in the first trades this Monday (19), with investors adopting caution at the beginning of the week that will bring monetary policy decisions from central banks in both Brazil and the United States.
At 9:08 am (GMT), the spot dollar advanced 0.57%, at R$ 5.2911 on sale.
On B3, at 9:08 am (GMT), the first-maturity dollar futures contract rose 0.67% to R$5.3075.
Investors expect a sharp rise in benchmark interest rates in the United States. The Fed (Federal Reserve, American central bank) will announce a new adjustment in its rate next Wednesday (21).
Last week, global markets reflected fears that inflation in the United States could force the country to raise interest rates to the point of causing the world economy to tumble in the coming months.
After the scare at the beginning of the week with a surprisingly high US consumer price index, the new symbol of recession fear was the fall of more than 20% of FedEx shares in this Friday’s session (16) on the New York Stock Exchange. York.
A giant in the field of express delivery of correspondence, documents and objects, the American company Federal Express said the day before that it had suffered a rapid drop in shipment volumes in recent weeks as macroeconomic trends worsened.
The slowdown in the delivery of goods on a global scale offers evidence that the world economy may be on shaky ground, analysts told The Wall Street Journal.
One of the immediate effects of the worsening of this fear is the outflow of dollars from emerging markets, such as Brazil, towards investments considered safe, such as US Treasury bonds.
The commercial dollar rose 2.19% in the Brazilian exchange last week, quoted at R$5.26.
Bad moods also spilled over into domestic actions. Reference of the Brazilian Stock Exchange, the Ibovespa index fell 2.69% in the week.
On Wall Street, the main indicators of the American market ended the week lower. The Dow Jones, which tracks the performance of 30 of the largest US companies, sank 4.13%. The S&P 500, the benchmark for shares traded in New York, collapsed 4.77%.
Two weeks ago, the market expected a 50-0.75 percentage point hike in the Fed’s interest rate. But now there is an expectation for an increase between 0.75 and 1 percentage point.
Perspectives on interest rates worsened after the announcement last Tuesday (13) that US inflation rose 0.1% in August, accumulating 8.3% in 12 months.
Market analysts had expected the CPI, an acronym for consumer price index, to show deflation of 0.1% in the month and, in the accumulated in 12 months, a fall from 8.5% to 8.1%.
Caused by the breakdown of supply chains during the pandemic and exacerbated by the Ukrainian War, inflation is a problem for major economies.
In the euro zone, inflation hit a record 9.1% in August, the European Union statistics office Eurostat confirmed on Friday. The rise was driven by soaring energy and food prices, Reuters reported.
Although experts recognize the need to raise interest rates to avoid an even greater spike in prices, the persistence of inflation is imposing a scenario in which interest rates can rise to the point of causing a serious recession with the potential to spread across the globe.
with Reuters
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