Economists raise forecast for Selic and inflation in 2023

Analysts consulted by the Central Bank began to see less monetary easing this year amid higher expectations for inflation, according to the Focus survey released this Monday (16).

The survey shows that specialists are now calculating the basic Selic interest rate at 12.50% at the end of this year, up from 12.25% the week before. For 2024, it follows the perspective of Selic at 9.25%.

Currently, the rate is at 13.75%, a level that should be maintained at the Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting on January 31st and February 1st, according to the median of expectations in Focus.

The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, pointed to an increase in expectations for the IPCA to rise this year for the fifth time in a row, reaching 5.39%, from 5.36% before. For next year, inflation is still estimated at 3.70%

The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. In 2022, the IPCA closed with an accumulated increase of 5.79%, surpassing the target ceiling for the second year in a row.

For the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the estimate of growth in 2023 is 0.77%, 0.01 point less than in the previous week, and for 2024 it is 1.50%.

This is the first Focus after the invasions of the headquarters of the Three Powers, in Brasília, on January 8, since the survey was closed last Friday.