By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

Something disturbing has been happening in the last couple of months in the food markets. Commodity prices have begun to rise again slowly, but to a point where no one can ignore it. A fact that for a large portion of analysts possibly portends new price increases, and therefore upward pressure on inflation.

Its food index Bloomberg, which tracks the movements of 9 basic products, continues its upward trajectory. After +9% last week, the biggest increase since last July, it started the new week with a rise of 0.62%, climbing to the highest level since December 20 driven by the geopolitical factor and bad weather conditions.

The main culprit is grains. In the London Stock Exchange they closed up 4.6% and are at their highest point since last August. American corn and soybeans are trading at a 5-month high. Difficult weather conditions have caused great concern for the new year’s harvest in Russia, Australia and the US. The prospects from Brazil are also pessimistic, while in Ukraine the destruction of infrastructure continues, resulting in the loss of large quantities.

Coffee both on the London Stock Exchange and the New York it is trading at its second highest price in five years after the record in mid-April. Especially the price of the Robusta variety, in the last year has increased by about 50%. Vietnam, which is the largest producer, has been hit by severe droughts, resulting in the fourth consecutive year that supply cannot meet demand. A demand that is simultaneously increasing as the Chinese – albeit slowly – have begun to include coffee in their daily lives.

Near 5-year highs and cattle prices on USA. Although supply is increasing, demand is increasing at a faster rate pushing prices up. The World Food Organization’s meat index has been rising for the past 3 months as poultry prices have also been rising due to the bird flu that is killing large quantities.

In an all-time high, natural orange juice closed the day up 2.14% after the collapse of the Brazilian harvest, which fell to a 35-year low. And with the US and Brazil having 95% of the market it’s no surprise that the wholesale price is up 77% over last year.

It is no coincidence that the global food index has been increasing in the last 2 months and the announcement of the world organization on June 7th is awaited with particular interest as no one wishes to…. “triage” the evil.