Lula’s election reinforces new wave of left that is reborn in Latin America

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With the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, from the PT, this Sunday, the six most populous countries and main economies in Latin America have left or center-left presidents — Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Chile.

In the 2000s, the US press coined the somewhat derogatory nickname “pink tide”, or pink wave, to refer to the emergence of progressive governments in the region, such as Lula’s own in Brazil.

Besides him, there were Rafael Correa, in Ecuador, Hugo Chávez, in Venezuela, Ricardo Lagos and Michelle Bachelet, in Chile, Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Kirchner, in Argentina, Ollanta Humala, in Peru, Daniel Ortega, in Nicaragua, and Evo Morales, in Bolivia.

Several of these leaders joined ALBA, the Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas, in 2004, in an attempt to create a regional bloc whose objective was to confront a proposal to create the FTAA, the Free Trade Area of ​​the Americas, promoted by Washington, which ended up failing. .

Constant references on the part of Chávez to Simón Bolívar, the hero of several independences in the region, led to these countries also being called “Bolivarians”.

At that time, there were programmatic and ideological differences between the governments, with a current more identified with social democracy (in Chile and in Brazil), another with a more nationalist tone (Bolivia and Argentina) and a third with an authoritarian nature, which with time would turn into dictatorships (Venezuela and Nicaragua).

Distinctions also mark the new wave. It includes the new Chilean left and its emphasis on identity and ecological guidelines; the first leftist government in Colombia with disruptive proposals to dismantle drug trafficking networks through dialogue and agreements; an archaic left, very conservative in terms of customs, like the Peruvian one; another with a more populist tone, like the Mexican one; and also the one that bets on protectionist policies to deal with serious economic problems, like Argentina.

“Lula’s victory is relevant for giving new impetus to regional integration initiatives, but one should not expect something similar to the previous so-called ‘pink wave'”, he says. political scientist Lorena Oyarzún, from the University of Chile.

“The region is experiencing another economic moment, marked by the pandemic and the Ukrainian War, there is no commodity boom to feed projects with high social spending and, therefore, there are fewer possibilities to create labor insertion programs.”

Regarding Chile, Oyarzún believes that there will be a “180 degree change” in the relationship with Brazil. In the electoral campaign, Jair Bolsonaro, from the PL, created diplomatic friction with the country by claiming that Gabriel Boric had committed acts of vandalism in protests in the past. The Brazilian ambassador in Santiago, Paulo Pacheco, was called to give an explanation, and both the Chilean government and the opposition repudiated the statements.

“At first glance, it may seem that a triumph will stimulate relations between Colombia and Brazil and with other countries in the region attuned to progressivism and ‘Latin Americanism,'” says Álvaro Duque, a sociologist at the Universidad del Rosario in Bogotá.

“But local political games do not always result in benefits just because of ideological alignment. If there are setbacks to a president, as with Boric in the defeat in the constitutional plebiscite, this can contaminate the popularity of the others or lead to a withdrawal.”

Duque also believes that there may be advances in one of the points on the agenda of interest to both, the protection of the Amazon. “Both this issue and the creation of alternatives for the war on drugs can bring Petro closer to Lula.”

Federico Merke, a professor of political science at the Universidad de San Andrés in Argentina, believes that Lula will have to be very cautious in his involvement in the Argentine presidential campaign in 2023, but that his election will favor a rapprochement between the two countries at the political and economic levels.

“There are so many problems in the region, and the international scenario is so different from 20 years ago, that governments will have a lot of work to do internally. That’s why I believe there will be a mimicry of regional integration, but the priorities of these presidents will be the domestic agenda.” , says.

Merke also draws attention to the fact that newly elected presidents are rapidly wearing down. “What we are experiencing in the region today is more an anti-government impulse than a leftist impulse. There has been dissatisfaction in recent years, which has produced street demonstrations and adverse electoral results for those in power,” he says.

“This shows that society’s patience has been short, the truce time for those who have just been elected is shorter. Petro and Boric are already feeling this and this demand will also occur with Lula.”

According to Oyarzún, the polarization and the context of countries that had demonstrations are elements that contribute to the tumultuous beginning of the administrations. “Voters, more than voting, have made real bets on their future and want results very quickly. The new leaderships in the region will have to show if they are capable of delivering that.”

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